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Determinants of statutory tax rate changes by the Canadian provinces

机译：加拿大各省法定税率变化的决定因素

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摘要

Tax rate changes are some of the most significant and far-reaching decisions a government can take. In this paper we investigate the various fiscal and political factors that influence a government's statutory tax rate change choices. We employ a multinomial logit model to empirically investigate the likelihood of changes to personal income tax, corporate income tax, and provincial sales tax rates by Canadian provincial governments over the period 1973-2010. Our results indicate that provincial governments that start with higher tax rates are more likely to cut, and less likely to raise, their tax rates. Another important implication of our results is that ideology matters-provinces with left-leaning governments are less likely to cut and more likely to raise their tax rates. The results are robust to various sensitivity checks.
机译：税率变化是政府可以做出的最重要，最深远的决定。在本文中，我们研究了影响政府法定税率变更选择的各种财政和政治因素。我们采用多项式logit模型，以实证研究加拿大省政府在1973-2010年期间对个人所得税，公司所得税和省营业税税率进行更改的可能性。我们的结果表明，以较高税率开始的省级政府更有可能降低税率，而提高税率的可能性较小。我们的结果的另一个重要含义是，意识形态很重要-偏左政府的省份不太可能减税，而更可能提高其税率。该结果对于各种敏感性检查都是可靠的。

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