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首页> 外文期刊>Economics of innovation and new technology >A COMPARISON OF PROXY VARIABLE AND STOCHASTIC LATENT VARIABLE APPROACHES TO THE MEASUREMENT OF BIAS IN TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN SOUTH AFRICAN AGRICULTURE
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A COMPARISON OF PROXY VARIABLE AND STOCHASTIC LATENT VARIABLE APPROACHES TO THE MEASUREMENT OF BIAS IN TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN SOUTH AFRICAN AGRICULTURE

机译：南非农业技术变迁中偏差变量与随机隐性变量方法的比较。

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摘要

Technical change is inherently unobservable and has conventionally been represented by proxy variables, from simple time trends to more sophisticated knowledge stock variables. This paper follows Lambert and Shonkwiler (1995) in modelling technical change as a stochastic unobservable variable and tests this formulation against the alternative of using R&D and patent indices. This is done by fitting a system of share equations, derived from the dual profit function, to production data for South African agriculture. Each equation includes both unobserved technical change components and technical proxy variables. Variable deletion tests show that conventional proxy variables fail to explain the biases of technological change, while cointegration tests show that technical change is both stochastic and biased. The latent variables provide estimates of biases that are consistent with past studies and the historical record and can be explained by policy change in South Africa following WWII. The demonstration of high rates of return to R&D is not sufficient to justify R&D activity when biased technological change exacerbates input use and welfare distortions within and without the sector.
机译：技术变革本质上是无法观察到的，并且通常由代理变量代表，从简单的时间趋势到更复杂的知识储备变量。本文遵循Lambert和Shonkwiler（1995）将技术变化建模为随机的，不可观察的变量，并针对使用R＆D和专利索引的替代方法测试了此公式。这是通过将源自对偶利润函数的份额方程系统拟合到南非农业的生产数据来完成的。每个等式都包括未观察到的技术变更组件和技术代理变量。变量删除测试表明，传统的代理变量无法解释技术变革的偏见，而协整测试表明，技术变革既是随机的又是有偏见的。潜在变量可提供与过去的研究和历史记录一致的偏差估计，并且可以用第二次世界大战后南非的政策变化来解释。当有偏见的技术变革加剧了行业内外的投入使用和福利扭曲时，高研发收益率不足以证明研发活动是合理的。

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