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The 90% economy

机译：90％的经济

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IN MANY THING 90% is just fine; in an economy it is miserable, and China shows why. The country started to end its lockdown in February. Factories are busy and the streets are no longer empty. The result is the 90% economy. It is better than a severe lock-down, but it is far from normal. The missing bits include large chunks of everyday life. Rides on the metro and on domestic flights are down by a third. Discretionary consumer spending, on such things as restaurants, has fallen by 40% and hotel stays are a third of normal. People are weighed down by financial hardship and the fear of a second wave of covid-19. Bankruptcies are rising and unemployment, one broker has said, is three times the official level, at around 20%. If the post-lockdown rich world suffers its own brand of the 90% economy, life will be hard-at least until a vaccine or a treatment is found (see Briefing). A plunge in gdp in America of anything like 10% would be the largest since the second world war. The more suffering covid-19 causes, the more profound and enduring its economic, social and political effects are likely to be. How lockdowns ease will itself affect the scale of economic damage. For instance, the cost-benefit calculus points towards opening schools first (see next leader). But, however sensibly restrictions are eased, powerful forces will hold economies back.
机译：在很多情况下，90％就可以了;在经济中这是痛苦的，而中国则说明了原因。该国从2月开始结束封锁。工厂很忙，街道不再空无一人。结果就是90％的经济性。它比严格的锁定更好，但与正常情况相去甚远。缺少的部分包括日常生活中的大部分内容。地铁和国内航班的乘车率下降了三分之一。在餐厅等事情上，消费者的自由消费下降了40％，而酒店住宿则是正常水平的三分之一。人们因财务困难和对第二波covid-19的恐惧而感到沮丧。一位经纪人说，破产率正在上升，失业率是官方水平的三倍，约为20％。如果封锁后的富裕国家遭受自己的90％经济烙印，至少在找到疫苗或治疗之前，生活将很艰难（请参阅简报）。美国国内生产总值暴跌10％之多将是第二次世界大战以来的最大跌幅。 covid-19造成的痛苦越多，其经济，社会和政治影响就可能越深远和持久。封锁的缓解方式本身将影响经济损失的规模。例如，成本效益计算法指向首先开设学校（请参阅下一位负责人）。但是，无论明智地放宽限制，强大的力量都会阻碍经济发展。

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    《The economist》 |2020年第9192期|7-7|共1页
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