"WHEN AMERICANS vote in Novem-ber, unemployment will be below 6%," declared Lars Christensen, a maverick economist, in May. Given that lockdowns had sent the unemployment rate soaring to 147% only the month before, it was a bold prediction. In June at least 14 of the Federal Reserve's 17 interest-rate-setters forecast that quarterly unemployment at the end of the year would still be above 9%. Most other prognosticators were equally gloomy. They expected American GOP to collapse in 2020 and recover relatively slowly. Mr Christensen insisted that natural disasters, unlike financial crashes and recessions brought on by economic policy mistakes, are typically followed by rapid recoveries.
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