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The wave v the tantrum

机译:波浪v the tantrum

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DESPITE THEIR supposed dynamism, emerging markets often struggle to escape their past. A few months ago, investors worried that this year would turn out to be a repeat of 2013, when rising bond yields in America prompted a sharp sell-off in emerging markets, known as the taper tantrum. Now investors are worried that 2021 will be a grim repeat of last year, as another, more virulent wave of covid-19 infections spreads through Brazil, India and elsewhere. To give shape to these fears, analysts have been busy drawing up lists of the most vulnerable countries, based on everything from inflation to infection rates. They have been looking for this year's successors to the "fragile five" (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey), the countries that were hardest hit by the taper tantrum eight years ago. So it is notable that the man who named the original five, James Lord of Morgan Stanley, a bank, has chosen this moment to turn "outright bullish" on some emerging-market assets, telling his clients to "buy local bonds". What explains his calm in the face of calamity?
机译:尽管他们所谓的活力,但新兴市场往往很难逃避他们的过去。几个月前,投资者担心今年将成为2013年的重点,当上升债券收益率促使新兴市场的急剧抛售,称为锥度发脾气。现在投资者担心,2021年将严峻地重复去年,就像另一种更具毒性的Covid-19感染浪潮通过巴西,印度和其他地方传播。为了使这些恐惧的形状,分析师一直在忙着根据从通货膨胀到感染率的一切来吸取最脆弱国家的列表。他们一直在寻找今年的继任者,以“脆弱的五”(巴西,印度,印度尼西亚,南非和土耳其),这是八年前锥度令人震惊的国家。因此,一个名叫原来的人的男人詹姆斯·摩根士丹利,一家银行的詹姆斯·伦敦,已经选择了一些新兴市场资产的“彻底看涨”,告诉他的客户“购买当地债券”。什么解释了他面对灾难的平静?

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    《The economist》 |2021年第9242期|共2页
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