IN THE SPRING of 2020 American consumer prices fell for three consecutive months as the pandemic struck. Rents collapsed, hotel rooms went empty and oil prices turned negative. All sudden spurts of deflation or inflation make the news twice: first when they happen and then a year later, when they distort comparisons that look back 12 months. Sure enough on April 13th statisticians announced that consumer prices in March were fully 2.6% higher than a year earlier, up from 1.7% in February. The increase in headline inflation was the biggest since November 2009, when similar "base effects" were in play after the global financial crisis.
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