If only America could abolish the first quarter, its economy would look so much better. In 2014 a cold snap triggered by the "polar vortex" caused gdp to fall by 2.9% at an annualised rate. This time round, more cold weather, a decline in oil drilling and a labour dispute at west-coast ports is causing growth estimates to be revised down once more. Figures for manufacturing output, durable-goods orders, housing starts and retail sales have all been weaker than expected. The consensus forecast for growth in the first quarter is 1.4% at an annualised rate. But a nimbler model created by the Atlanta Federal Reserve points to just 0.2%-barely any growth at all.
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机译：如果仅美国可以废除第一季度，其经济状况将看起来好得多。 2014年，“极地涡旋”引发的寒潮导致GDP下降了2.9％，年率下降。这次，更冷的天气，石油钻探的减少以及西海岸港口的劳资纠纷正在使增长估计再次下调。制造业产出，耐用品订单，房屋开工和零售销售数据均弱于预期。市场普遍预计第一季度的增长率为1.4％。但是由亚特兰大联邦储备银行（Atlanta Federal Reserve）创建的一个更加灵巧的模型指出，这一数字几乎只有0.2％，几乎没有增长。
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