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Buttonwood | Right back where we started

机译：扣子|就在我们开始的地方

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Any investor who fell asleep on Janu-ary 1st and woke up on June 30th might feel they had not missed anything. The s&p 500 index ended the first half pretty much where it started; the same is true of London's FTSE 100 index. The ten-year Treasury-bond yield edged up by around a fifth of a percentage point (see chart). Nor would a reawakened investor be particularly surprised to find that Europe was still engulfed in a Greek crisis. But a lot did change in the first half of the year and recent events have emphasised three lessons. The first is that political risk is very real. Over the past decade or so, investors seem to have decided that such risks are overblown. Middle East crises have come and gone without the straits of Hormuz being blocked and oil supplies impeded. Congress has repeatedly threatened to shut down the government and drive America into technical default by refusing to raise the limit on its debts—but at the last minute, deals get done. Scotland did not vote to leave the United Kingdom. Russia and the West may be at loggerheads over Ukraine, but that has affected Russian markets, not those in Europe or America.
机译：任何在1月1日入睡并在6月30日醒来的投资者可能会觉得自己什么都没错过。标准普尔500指数在上半年几乎从头开始收盘。伦敦富时100指数也是如此。十年期美国国债收益率微升了约五分之一（见图）。惊醒的投资者也不会惊讶地发现欧洲仍然被希腊危机所吞没。但是，上半年发生了很多变化，最近的事件强调了三个教训。首先是政治风险是非常现实的。在过去的十年左右的时间里，投资者似乎认为这种风险被夸大了。在霍尔木兹海峡不被封锁和石油供应受到阻碍的情况下，中东危机来来去去。国会一再威胁要关闭政府，并拒绝提高债务上限，迫使美国陷入技术违约状态，但到最后一刻，交易就完成了。苏格兰不投票离开英国。俄罗斯和西方国家可能在乌克兰的争夺战中屈服，但这已影响到俄罗斯市场，而不是欧洲或美洲市场。

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    《The economist》 |2015年第8945期|60-60|共1页
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