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Better than Ukraine

机译：比乌克兰好

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"We are notin a recession" insisted Guido Mantega, Brazil's finance minister, on August 29th. According to the most common definition-two consecutive quarters of falling output-he is wrong. Official figures released earlier that day showed that gdp fell by 0.6% between the first and second quarters (an annualised contraction of 2.4%). Output also fell, by 0.2%, in the first three months of the year. Brazil's economy has now shrunk in three of the last four quarters. Most analysts think it will not grow at all this year; a year ago they were expecting growth of 3%. In 2015 the economy is likely to expand by only 1%. Not even Mr Mantega can deny that Brazil is going through a rough patch. The government blames a weak global recovery from the financial crisis of 200809 and a surfeit of public holidays during the month-long football World Cup, which concluded in Brazil on July 13th. These were decreed by federal, state and municipal authorities to ease pressure on public transport as hordes of fans descended on host cities. Itau, a big Brazilian bank, reckons fewer working days account for half the latest fall in gdp. (Critics note that the Copa was meant to be an economic boon, not a curse.) Industrial production picked up in July, with its fewer fe-riados-but not nearly enough to offset June's 1.4% decline. Inventories remain uncomfortably high: carmakers' stocks, for instance, are 50% bigger than usual.
机译：巴西财政部长吉多·曼特加（Guido Mantega）在8月29日坚持认为：“我们没有陷入衰退。”根据最常见的定义-连续两个季度的产量下降-他是错误的。当天早些时候发布的官方数据显示，第一季度和第二季度之间的国内生产总值下降了0.6％（年度收缩2.4％）。今年前三个月的产量也下降了0.2％。在过去四个季度中的三个季度中，巴西的经济目前已经萎缩。大多数分析师认为，今年根本不会增长。一年前，他们预计增长3％。 2015年，经济可能仅增长1％。甚至曼特加先生都不能否认巴西正在经历一个艰难的时期。政府指责全球经济从200809年金融危机中复苏乏力，并在7月13日在巴西结束的为期一个月的足球世界杯期间，由于公共假期过多。联邦，州和市政当局颁布了这些法规，以缓解公共交通的压力，因为成千上万的球迷涌向东道主城市。巴西大型银行Itau认为，工作日减少是GDP下降幅度的一半。 （批评人士指出，Copa的目的是带来经济利益，而不是诅咒。）工业生产在7月份有所回升，少有的男性里亚托，但不足以抵消6月份1.4％的下降。库存仍然高得令人不快：例如，汽车制造商的库存比平时多了50％。

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    《The economist》 |2014年第8903期|71-71|共1页
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