Remember 1982, when the Soviet threat haunted America and China was still a giant backwater that had only just started reforming its economy? Few will recall that it was also the last year in which the volume of world trade shrank. Twenty-seven years later, it is likely to fall once again-by 2%, the World Bank predicts.rnIt is not just that China's export juggernaut has stalled. Caroline Freund, an economist at the bank, says that most countries for which data are available have reported double-digit declines in exports in the year to November. Exports from Chile, South Korea and Taiwan dropped by about 20%. November's figures may have exaggerated the gloom because of a precautionary rundown of inventories and a shortage of trade finance, both of which may be shortlived. But there is little dispute that a serious slowdown in trade is under way.
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