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The Ties That Bind

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When companies brandish maps of their conquests, trouble usually follows. For some west European banks in recent years, the cartography in question tracked their efforts to hoover up lenders in central and eastern Europe (cee). Depending on how this area is defined-some stretch it as far as Kazakhstan-up to four-fifths of bank assets are foreign-owned.rnThe global crisis has abruptly ended eastern Europe's credit-fuelled boom. Estimates of output have slumped and currencies have dropped as capital inflows have dried up. Credit-default swaps on sovereign debt, which measure the risk of default, have risen, generally to more alarming levels the further east you go. When governments are at risk of default, banking systems typically get into deep trouble. The contagion has thus hit western banks with high exposure to cee (see chart), and the countries where they are headquartered. Austria, which hosts Raiffeisen and Erste Bank, has loans to the wider region of €230 billion ($293.5 billion), equivalent to about 80% of Austrian gdp. Austria's government-bond yields have risen close to the levels of Italy, the euro zone's habitual miscreant. Worries that the euro zone will have to bail out its eastern cousins have hit the single currency.
机译:当公司挥舞其征服的地图时,通常会遇到麻烦。近年来,对于某些西欧银行来说,有关的制图跟踪了他们为徘徊在中欧和东欧(cee)的贷方所做的努力。取决于这一领域的定义-可能延伸到哈萨克斯坦,直至多达五分之四的银行资产是外资拥有的。全球危机突然结束了东欧信贷推动的繁荣。由于资本流入枯竭,产量估计值下降,货币下跌。衡量违约风险的主权债务信用违约掉期已经增加,通常到越远的地方,到的警报水平就更高。当政府有违约风险时,银行系统通常会陷入严重麻烦。因此,这种传染病已经打击了中欧和东欧国家(见图表),这些国家的中欧和东欧暴露率很高。由拉菲森(Raiffeisen)和埃斯特银行(Erste Bank)托管的奥地利向整个地区提供了2300亿欧元(合2935亿美元)的贷款,约占奥地利国内生产总值的80%。奥地利政府债券的收益率已接近欧元区惯常的不法行为意大利的水平。担心欧元区将不得不纾困其东部表兄弟的担忧已经打击了单一货币。

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    《The economist》 |2009年第8619期|77|共1页
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