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No certain outcome

机译:没有确定的结果

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If it were not that Iran's presidential election will determine the fate of a large, ancient nation, and perhaps also the chances of peace in a vital region of the world, the spectacle might simply be hugely entertaining. In this religion-diluted quasi-de-mocracy, where politics tends to be expressed in ritual public chanting or sullen private apathy, the contest has evolved unexpectedly into a bare-knuckled slugging match, complete with taunting rhetoric, dirty tricks and colourful, rowdy fans. Rather than leading to a widely predicted first-round win for Mahmoud Ahmadine-jad, the fight has thrown Iran's ebullient, controversial president on the defensive.rnUntil very recently the field of challengers looked uninspiring, particularly after the abrupt withdrawal of Muhammad Khatami, a liberal reformer who won overwhelming victories to serve as president from 1997-2005. Several potentially strong conservatives also declined to run, apparently in deference to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has subtly lent his considerable weight to the incumbent. This left two greybeards who are both centrists in the theocratic context of Iran: Mehdi Karroubi, a former speaker of parliament, and Mir Hosein Mousavi, prime minister during the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88, as the only serious contenders for the opposition. With both standing on mildly reformist platforms, they looked likelier to split and weaken the protest vote than to oust Mr Ahmadinejad.
机译:如果不是伊朗总统大选将决定一个古老大国的命运,或者在世界上这个重要地区决定和平的机会,那这种景象可能简直是极富娱乐性的。在这种以宗教稀释的准民主制中,政治倾向于以礼节性的公共吟诵或不高兴的私人冷漠来表达,比赛已意外地演变成一场光鲜夺目的拍打比赛,加上嘲讽的言辞,肮脏的把戏和色彩斑,的粗暴行径。粉丝这场战斗并没有导致普遍认为艾哈迈迪-贾德(Mahmoud Ahmadine-jad)的首轮胜利,反而使伊朗热情洋溢,富有争议的总统陷入了防守。自由主义者,曾在1997年至2005年间赢得压倒性胜利,担任总统。几位可能强大的保守派人士也拒绝参选,这显然是出于对最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)的敬意,他巧妙地向现任领导人借了很大的分量。这留下了两个在伊朗神权主义背景下都是中间派的灰胡子:前议会发言人梅赫迪·卡鲁比(Mehdi Karroubi)和1980-88年伊伊拉克战争期间的总理米尔·侯赛因·穆萨维(Mir Hosein Mousavi),是反对派的唯一严肃反对者。他们俩都站在温和的改良主义者的立场上,似乎比罢免艾哈迈迪-内贾德先生更可能分裂和削弱抗议者的选票。

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    《The economist》 |2009年第8634期|55-56|共2页
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