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Professionally gloomy

机译：专业的忧郁

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A senior risk manager at one of the world's biggest banks says his moment of truth came when he was looking at HSBC'S numbers for the third quarter of 2006: "I remember saying to my assistant: 'This is strange. Have a look at this'." What he had spotted was a sharp increase in loss provisions at HSBC'S American unit, prompted in part by higher delinquencies on mortgage loans. He dug deeper and found that HSBC'S problems were concentrated in the subprime market and portended much worse to come. Others were coming to similar conclusions. The smarter banks started to steer away from the problem in late 2006 and early 2007. The rest kept ploughing ahead. Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, numbers one and two in the CDO league tables in 2006, were well on course to beat their year-end issuance records when the markets seized up in August. More issuance did not just mean higher levels of inventory in the warehouse when the securitisation conveyor belt stopped moving. The worst-hit banks had also used their own money to invest in mortgage-backed securities, primarily those deceptively safe "super-senior" tranches of CDOS. UBS (or Used to Be Smart, as the joke now has it) has written down an astonishing $38 billion in the past nine months (see chart 5).
机译：一家全球最大的银行之一的高级风险经理说，当他查看汇丰银行2006年第三季度的数字时，他的关键时刻来了：“我记得对我的助手说：'这很奇怪。 。”他发现，汇丰美国分部的损失准备金大幅增加，部分原因是抵押贷款拖欠率上升。他更深入地挖掘，发现汇丰银行的问题集中在次级抵押贷款市场，并且预示未来还会恶化。其他人也得出类似的结论。精明的银行在2006年底和2007年初开始避免这一问题。其余银行则继续努力。 2006年，在CDO排行榜上排名第一和第二的美林证券和花旗集团，在八月份市场活跃时，有望冲破年终发行记录。当证券化传送带停止移动时，更多的发行并不仅仅意味着仓库中更高的库存水平。受灾最严重的银行还动用了自己的资金投资抵押支持证券，主要是那些看似安全的CDOS“超高级”债券。在过去的九个月里，瑞银集团（或曾经被称为“聪明人”）减记了惊人的380亿美元（见图5）。

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    《The economist》 |2008年第8580期|111214|共3页
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