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The crowd within

机译：里面的人群

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That problem solving becomes easier when more minds are put to the task is no more than common sense. But the phenomenon goes further than that. Ask two people to answer a question like "how many windows are there on a London double-decker bus" and average their answers. Their combined guesses will usually be more accurate than if just one person had been asked. Ask a crowd, rather than a pair, and the average is often very close to the truth. The phenomenon was called "the wisdom of crowds" by James Surowiecki, a columnist for the New Yorker who wrote a book about it. Now a pair of psychologists have found an intriguing corollary. They have discovered that two guesses made by the same person at different times are also better than one.
机译：当更多的人投入到任务中时，解决问题变得更加容易，这仅仅是常识。但是这种现象远不止于此。让两个人回答一个问题，例如“伦敦双层巴士上有多少个窗户”，然后平均回答。他们的综合猜测通常比只问一个人更准确。问一个人群，而不是一对，平均值通常非常接近真相。纽约客专栏作家詹姆斯·苏洛维耶克（James Surowiecki）将该现象称为“人群的智慧”。现在，一对心理学家发现了一个有趣的推论。他们发现同一个人在不同时间做出的两个猜测也比一个更好。

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    《The economist》 |2008年第8586期|105|共1页
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