Surprises, in the staid world of banking, tend to be of the unpleasant sort, as customers at Indy Mac Bancorp, a California thrift, can attest. Cross a few palms with silver, however, and there is a new way to profit from others' unexpected losses. Punters can now bet on bank failures in America, thanks to 12 new contracts against individually named banks listed on July 16th by Intrade, the largest online prediction market.rnOnce viewed as grubby gambling dens, prediction markets have sharpened up. Intrade says it has brokered $76m of bets this year. Its data have been used as a price-discovery tool by America's Commodities Futures Trading Commission, the United States Navy, various Federal Reserve banks, and the European Central Bank. The accuracy of prediction markets makes them hard to ignore; they were better than Gallup polls in predicting the outcome of elections between 1998 and 2004. Using the wisdom of crowds, they do a good job of forecasting the outcome of sporting events.
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机译：在呆滞的银行业中，惊喜往往是令人不快的，加州储蓄机构Indy Mac Bancorp的客户可以证明这一点。然而，将几手掌与白银交织在一起，就有了一种从他人意外损失中获利的新方法。由于最大的在线预测市场Intrade于7月16日列出了12个针对个别命名银行的新合同，因此赌注者现在可以押注美国的银行倒闭。一旦被视为肮脏的赌博场所，预测市场就变得更加活跃。 Intrade表示，今年已促成7,600万美元的押注。它的数据已被美国商品期货交易委员会，美国海军，各种美联储银行和欧洲中央银行用作价格发现工具。预测市场的准确性使其难以忽视。在预测1998年至2004年之间的选举结果方面，他们比盖洛普民意测验要好。利用人群的智慧，他们可以很好地预测体育赛事的结果。
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