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Turning Panic into opportunity

机译:把恐慌变成机会

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When all around are panicking, smart investors should be cooly asking whether it is time to buy. What signals should they be looking for?rnOne of the first measures is the VIX, or volatility index, which measures the variability of the American stockmarket. It is trading around the 30 level, or near its peak in March when Bear Stearns had to be rescued.rnThe theory is that, when volatility is high, markets are usually falling. That is because there is rarely such a thing as a "forced buyer" of shares. But there can be forced sellers, when investors need to dump their holdings to meet margin calls or repay debts. Faced with such selling, marketmakers adjust their prices sharply and that is what creates spikes in the VIX.rnThe VIX is well above its post-1990 average, according to the Chicago Board Options Exchange, which trades futures and options on the index. But it has yet to reach the heights seen in 2002, or when Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund, was being rescued in 1998. Both incidents, which pushed the VIX above 40, proved to be good moments to buy shares on a 12-month view.
机译:当所有人都感到恐慌时,精明的投资者应该冷静地询问是否该买入股票。他们应该寻找什么信号?第一项指标是VIX,即波动率指数,该指标衡量美国股市的波动性。它的交易价格在30水平附近,或接近贝尔斯登必须获救的3月份的峰值。理论是,当波动率很高时,市场通常会下跌。那是因为很少有股票被“强迫购买”这样的事情。但是,当投资者需要抛售所持股份以满足追加保证金或偿还债务时,可能会出现强制卖方。面对这种抛售,做市商会大幅调整价格,这就是VIX出现峰值的原因。rn根据芝加哥期货交易所的交易,该指数远高于1990年后的平均水平。但是它还没有达到2002年的高峰,或者说是1998年对冲基金长期资本管理公司被拯救时。两次将VIX推高至40以上的事件,都是购买股票的最佳时机。 12个月视图。

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    《The economist》 |2008年第8589期|87|共1页
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