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Home economics

机译:家庭经济

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The American housing market has deteriorated so sharply in the past two years that it is easy to fall prey to profound pessimism. Recent weeks have brought yet more bad news. To protect their thin capital, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the big mortgage agencies, said they would limit the volume of new mortgages that they buy. JPMorgan Chase announced $15 billion in mortgage-related write-downs and gave warning of worsening housing conditions. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve found that mortgage-underwriting terms were tightening by the greatest extent since the early 1990s.rnAmid the despondency, however, supply and demand are moving towards balance. Sales of new homes, which had plunged nearly 60% from their average level of 2005, have been stable since March. Sales of existing homes stopped falling last autumn. Julia Coronado of Barclays Capital says that construction of homes built for sale, not counting units that already have a buyer, had dropped to 13% below the level of new-home sales in the first quarter (see chart 1). She thinks second-quarter data, due out on August 19th, will show the gap growing to 18%. That is why the inventory of unsold homes, though still near recent highs relative to monthly sales, has fallen sharply in absolute terms.
机译:在过去的两年中,美国的房地产市场急剧恶化,很容易成为悲观主义者的牺牲品。最近几周带来了更多的坏消息。为了保护稀薄的资本,大型抵押贷款机构房利美和房地美表示,他们将限制购买的新抵押贷款的数量。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)宣布减记150亿美元与抵押贷款相关的资产,并警告住房状况恶化。同时,美联储发现抵押贷款承销条件自1990年代初以来最大程度地收紧。然而,在绝望之中,供求正在趋于平衡。自3月份以来,新房销售已比2005年的平均水平下降了近60%。去年秋天,现有房屋的销售停止下降。巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)的朱莉娅·科罗纳多(Julia Coronado)表示,出售的房屋建造量(不包括已经有买家的单位)已比第一季度的新屋销售量下降了13%(见图1)。她认为将于8月19日发布的第二季度数据将显示这一差距将扩大到18%。这就是为什么未售房屋库存(尽管相对于月度销售而言仍处于近期高位)但绝对值却急剧下降的原因。

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    《The economist》 |2008年第8593期|68-69|共2页
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