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Over The Edge

机译：在边缘

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As recently as a month ago, there were still hopes that America and Europe might just pull back from the precipice of a recession. Those hopes have been dashed. The economies of the rich world seem to have fallen off a cliff. The question now is the height of the drop.rnCentral banks are trying to cushion the fall. On October 29th the Federal Reserve lowered its target for the federal funds rate to 1%, matching the trough it reached in 2003. It may cut again. With remarkable speed, worries have shifted from inflation, which is still around 5%, to deflation. Fed officials still think that, if even pessimistic forecasts came to pass, inflation would not fall below zero. But Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecaster, now reckons that core inflation will fall to 1.3% by 2010, too close to zero for the Fed's comfort. They expect the Fed to cut the federal funds rate to 0.5% in December and then, with scant room for more cuts, that it may try to stimulate growth using unconventional measures such as further expanding its lending facilities to banks and other firms.
机译：就在一个月前，人们仍然希望美国和欧洲可能刚从衰退的边缘撤退。那些希望破灭了。富裕国家的经济似乎已经跌落悬崖。现在的问题是跌幅的高度。各国央行正试图缓解跌势。 10月29日，美联储将联邦基金利率下调至1％的目标，与2003年达到的谷底相当。它可能会再次下调利率。令人担忧的速度已经从仍在5％左右的通货膨胀转向通缩。美联储官员仍然认为，即使悲观的预测过去了，通货膨胀率也不会降至零以下。但是，作为预报员的宏观经济顾问现在认为，到2010年核心通货膨胀率将降至1.3％，对于美联储的舒适度来说太接近于零。他们预计美联储将在12月将联邦基金利率降低至0.5％，然后在没有进一步降息空间的情况下，可能会尝试采用非常规措施来刺激经济增长，例如进一步扩大对银行和其他公司的贷款额度。

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    《The economist》 |2008年第8604期|8890|共2页
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