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Baltic blues

机译:波罗的海蓝调

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摘要

Devaluation would be horribly painful and solve nothing. That is Latvia's defence, as its inflation rate and current-account deficit soar, and speculators hover over its pegged exchange rate. On paper, the small Baltic economy looks nastily exposed, as, to a lesser extent, do its neighbours Lithuania and Estonia (see chart on next page). All three have overheating economies and fixed exchange rates: a risky mix. Some fear the region could be eastern Europe's Achilles heel. Latvia is in the worst situation. Year-on-rnyear inflation in September was a whopping 11.4%; the current-account deficit over a fifth of gdp. Bank lending, much of it in foreign currencies, has soared, creating a property bubble in the capital, Riga. Overheating has hurt competitiveness. To some the national currency, the lat, looks like the likeliest casualty.
机译:贬值将是非常痛苦的,无法解决任何问题。那是拉脱维亚的防御,因为它的通货膨胀率和经常账户赤字飙升,投机者将钱停留在其固定汇率上。从表面上看,波罗的海小国的经济看上去令人厌恶,其邻国立陶宛和爱沙尼亚在较小程度上也是如此(见下页图表)。这三个国家都有过热的经济和固定的汇率:危险的组合。一些人担心该地区可能成为东欧的致命弱点。拉脱维亚处境最糟。 9月份的同比通货膨胀率高达11.4%。经常账户赤字超过GDP的五分之一。银行贷款(其中大部分是外币)猛增,在首都里加造成房地产泡沫。过热损害了竞争力。对于某些国家的货币,拉特看来是最可能的伤亡者。

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