Back in 2005, in an apparent flight of fancy, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted a "super-spike" in the oil price to $105 a barrel. On October 31st, the prediction came as close as it ever has to fulfilment, when the price of West Texas Intermediate reached $94.74 during the New York day and breached $96 after hours. But the investment bank's seers are no longer sure that it will hit their mark soon: the "downside risks" to the price, they had warned investors the day before, were "gaining momentum".
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