The link between business confidence and GDP growth seems to have cracked. Just as some people predict the weather according to the odd behaviour of birds or the leaves of tulips, so Germany's Ifo business-climate index, published each month by a Munich research institute, has long been the most closely watched leading indicator of the country's GDP growth. For the past couple of decades the two series have marched closely in step with one another-until this year, when a large gap seems to be opening up.
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