For months European leaders have been transfixed by the fear that the French may say no to the European Union's constitutional treaty. But they may have been looking in the wrong direction. For the opinion polls suggest that the biggest threat to the constitution will not be the French vote on May 29th, but the Dutch referendum three days later, on June 1st. French opinion polls are neck and neck, with a slight tilt back to no this week; but the bookmakers still make the yes campaign the favourite to win. In the Netherlands, by contrast, the most recent poll by Maurice de Hond, the country's leading pollster, has the no campaign ahead by 55% to 45%. Mr De Hond says that, unless the debate changes radically in the next couple of weeks, "I'm very confident it will be a no." For the first time, the Dutch government's own polls are also showing the no campaign ahead, albeit only by one point.
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机译：几个月来，欧洲领导人一直对担心法国可能对欧盟的宪法条约拒绝表示恐惧。但是他们可能一直在寻找错误的方向。民意测验显示，对宪法的最大威胁将不是法国5月29日的投票，而是三天后的6月1日的荷兰公投。法国民意测验并驾齐驱，本周略微回落至无。但博彩公司仍然将“是”竞选作为赢得胜利的最爱。相比之下，在荷兰，荷兰主要民意测验专家莫里斯·德·洪德（Maurice de Hond）进行的最新民意测验则将无投票率提高了55％至45％。德洪德先生说，除非辩论在接下来的几周内发生根本变化，否则“我非常有信心不会。”荷兰政府自己的民意测验也第一次显示出未来没有竞选活动，尽管只有一个百分点。
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