Surely China does not face a general AIDS epidemic? The government says that only 0.07% of the general population is infected with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, and, unlike some other governments' figures, this one may be an overestimate. The World Health Organisation (WHO) would prefer to quote a range of 0.05-0.08%. Moreover, large areas of the country have relatively few cases of HIV: in only three of China's 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities are more than 10,000 people infected. Even so, China does have an AIDS epidemic and, though it may not yet be a catastrophe on a national scale, it has the potential to become one. Several features of this epidemic are already serious enough to cause grave concern. First, it has spread to every province (see map on next page) and half the counties within them. Second, the number of reported cases is growing (chart 1) and, since 85% of those infected do not know they are HIV-positive, the growth will continue. Third, among certain groups, the infection is present in alarming proportions (chart 2).
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