Groucho marx famously remarked that he did not want to belong to any club that would have him as a member. The European Union faces the opposite problem. It is a club that does not appear to want anybody who applies for membership. One senior official comments that "the countries that are most attractive to us as future members are small, rich ones like Norway and Switzerland." Unfortunately the Swiss and Norwegians show no signs of wanting to join. All the would-be new members are poor or big, or both. On May 1st the EU will formally admit ten new countries. Most of them are from central Europe, and all are poorer than the EU average. Then, 2007 is the target date for the EU to let in two more relatively poor countries: Bulgaria and Romania. That would mean an EU of 27, which would become 28 if Croatia manages, as it hopes, to slip in at around the same time. By the end of this year, the EU is due to decide whether formally to open membership negotiations with Turkey-a country that is not only poor and big, but also Muslim. The betting in Brussels is that, unless the Cyprus re-unification talks go badly awry, Turkey will secure its invitation to start negotiations. And that means that eventual Turkish membership will become almost inevitable-perhaps by around 2015.
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