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Economics focus

机译：经济学重点

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After rebounding strongly in 2003, America's S&P 500, the benchmark index for American stockmarkets, has fallen by 8% since its high earlier this year. America's battle-hardened investors seem to think of this as little more than a flesh wound. Surveys suggest that they still expect average annual returns from equities of at least 10% over the next decade; many, indeed, have based their retirement plans on this assumption. Alas, they are likely to be severely disappointed. That might seem strange. After all, these expectations are far lower than at the peak of the bubble in 2000, after five wild years had delivered annual average returns of 25% and investors expected more of the same. They also look fairly conservative compared with the annual return of 13% that stocks delivered during the 45 years to 1995, before the bubble inflated. However, a study by Martin Barnes, an economist at the Bank Credit Analyst, a Canadian research firm, concludes that, at best, the average return over the next ten years is likely to be half that over the past half century.
机译：在2003年强劲反弹之后，美国标准普尔500指数（美国股票市场的基准指数）自今年初的高点以来已下跌8％。美国那些经过艰苦奋斗的投资者似乎认为这仅仅是肉伤。调查表明，他们仍然预计未来十年股票平均年收益率至少为10％。实际上，许多人的退休计划都基于此假设。 las，他们可能会非常失望。这可能看起来很奇怪。毕竟，在五个疯狂的年份实现了25％的年平均回报率之后，投资者的期望值远低于2000年泡沫高峰时的期望值。与在泡沫膨胀之前的45年中至1995年交付的股票的年收益率为13％相比，它们看上去也相当保守。但是，加拿大研究公司Bank Credit Analyst的经济学家马丁·巴恩斯（Martin Barnes）所做的一项研究得出的结论是，至多十年，未来十年的平均收益率很可能仅为过去半个世纪的一半。

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