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Economics focus

机译：经济学重点

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Mitch daniels, the top budget man in the Bush administration, last week acknowledged what private economists have known for months: that America has "returned to an era of deficits in the nation's public finances". Only two years ago, Mr Daniels was touting a projected ten-year budget surplus of more than $5 trillion as proof that America could easily afford a big tax cut. Now he expects deficits of between $200 billion and $300 billion (2-3% of GDP) over the next couple of years and modest spills of red ink "for the foreseeable future". What is more, these deficits exclude both the cost of a war in Iraq and President Bush's planned $670 billion tax cut. No one disputes that the speed of America's fiscal deterioration has been dramatic. But is it a cause for concern? A fierce political debate is raging. Democrats (and many Republican fiscal hawks) worry that rising budget deficits will harm the economy by reducing total national saving and pushing up interest rates. Just as the shift to budget surpluses in the 1990S helped to reduce interest rates and boost corporate investment, they argue, so the return to deficits will do the reverse. Nonsense, say the administration and its allies. Mr Daniels claims there is no reason to "hyperventilate" about budget deficits. The vice-president, Dick Cheney, argues that there is no evidence that interest rates move "in lockstep" with deficits. Other conservative commentators dismiss the idea that deficits affect interest rates as "Rubinomics" (after Robert Rubin, Bill Clinton's treasury secretary). The evidence, they claim, has never supported this crackpot idea.
机译：布什政府最高预算官员米奇•丹尼尔斯（Mitch daniels）上周承认，私人经济学家几个月来已经知道：美国“已回到国家公共财政赤字的时代”。就在两年前，丹尼尔斯先生还吹捧一个预计超过10万亿美元的十年预算盈余，以证明美国可以轻易负担得起大幅度的减税。现在，他预计未来几年赤字将在2000亿至3000亿美元之间（占GDP的2-3％），并且“在可预见的未来”将有少量的红色墨水溢出。而且，这些赤字不包括伊拉克战争的费用和布什总统计划的6700亿美元减税计划。没有人认为美国财政恶化的速度惊人。但这值得关注吗？激烈的政治辩论在进行。民主党人（以及许多共和党财政鹰派）担心，预算赤字上升将通过减少国民储蓄总额和提高利率来损害经济。他们认为，正如1990年代向预算盈余的转移有助于降低利率和增加公司投资一样，赤字的回报也将相反。政府及其盟友说废话。丹尼尔斯先生声称没有理由对预算赤字“过度通风”。副总统切尼（Dick Cheney）辩称，没有证据表明利率与赤字“步调一致”。其他保守派评论员则否认赤字会影响利率的观点被称为“鲁宾经济学”（在比尔·克林顿的财政部长罗伯特·鲁宾之后）。他们声称，证据从未支持这种骗子的想法。

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