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A convenient war, perhaps

机译：一场便利的战争，也许

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On the eve of the Gulf war, ten years ago, the oil market was tense. Prices spiked before the international coalition moved in to oust Saddam Hussein from Kuwait, but then quickly fell by about half. The conventional wisdom in the oil business is that such a price rise―and collapse―will recur when the Iraq war begins. Many oilmen argue that the sluggish state of the world economy points to softer prices once the spectre of war is gone (see chart on next page). And Iraq's greater military weakness means, they say, that war is likely to be over quickly. So they expect the current "war premium" for oil quickly to give way, perhaps to prices that fall below $20 a barrel.
机译：十年前的海湾战争前夕，石油市场十分紧张。在国际联盟从科威特驱逐萨达姆·侯赛因之前，价格飙升，但随后迅速下跌了约一半。石油行业的传统看法是，伊拉克战争开始时，这种价格上涨和崩溃将再次发生。许多石油商争辩说，一旦战火消散，世界经济的低迷状态将导致油价下跌（参见下页图表）。他们说，伊拉克更大的军事实力意味着战争可能很快结束。因此，他们预计当前的石油“战争溢价”将很快让步，也许会跌至每桶20美元以下。

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