Until recently, Brazil's presidential contest was shaping up as a straight fight between the veteran opposition leader, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers' Party, and Jose Serra, the standard-bearer of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's centre-right coalition. The two soft-left contenders, Ciro Gomes and Anthony Garotinho, were fading away. But Mr Gomes's ratings, which have soared from 9% to 27% in less than two months, have thrown the election―and the financial markets―into renewed turmoil. The real hit a record low of 2.95 against the dollar on July 24th after a new poll showed Mr Gomes far ahead of Mr Serra, whose support has dwindled to 14%, down from 21% last month. Investors are shuddering at the thought of a run-off between two leftish candidates―Mr Gomes and Mr da Silva, still the poll leader―both of whom until recently talked of "renegotiating" Brazil's government bonds.
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