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With Latin America heading south, Mexico turns its horses north

机译：随着拉丁美洲向南发展，墨西哥将马匹向北转移

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Only a few years ago, Mexico could be counted on to be at the forefront of any Latin American economic crisis. Yet this year, as Argentina's economic collapse and Brazil's financial panic spread gloom across South America, Mexico has barely been scratched. Indeed, there is much talk of Mexico having ceased to be a Latin American economy at all, thanks to its links with the United States through the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA). But even if that is true, therein lies a new set of challenges for the government of President Vicente Fox. Mexico has not been entirely unscathed by the turmoil to its south. Its peso lost 10% of its value between April and June, though it has since stabilised. Since April, the risk premium demanded by investors for holding the country's bonds has risen by around 50%, though it remains far lower than in Brazil's case (see chart). This has increased the cost of borrowing for Mexican companies. The rise also reflects worries about a "double-dip" recession in the United States. Though NAFTA helps shield Mexico from Latin American problems, it increases its dependency on its northern neighbour, which takes 89% of its exports. Were the value of Mexican bonds to fall much further, this would call into question the country's "investment-grade" credit rating, which allows American pension funds to invest in the country's assets.
机译：仅在几年前，墨西哥就可以指望成为任何拉丁美洲经济危机的最前沿。然而，今年，由于阿根廷的经济崩溃和巴西的金融恐慌在整个南美地区蔓延，墨西哥几乎没有受到影响。确实，由于墨西哥通过《北美自由贸易协定》（NAFTA）与美国建立联系，因此有很多关于墨西哥已经完全不再是拉丁美洲经济体的讨论。但是，即使这是真的，对维森特·福克斯总统的政府也构成了新的挑战。墨西哥的南部尚未完全摆脱动荡。比索在4月至6月间贬值了10％，尽管此后一直稳定下来。自4月以来，投资者要求持有该国债券的风险溢价已上升了约50％，尽管仍远低于巴西的情况（见图表）。这增加了墨西哥公司的借贷成本。上涨也反映出人们对美国“双底”衰退的担忧。尽管北美自由贸易协定帮助墨西哥免受拉丁美洲问题困扰，但它增加了对北部邻国的依赖，该邻国占其出口的89％。如果墨西哥债券的价值进一步下跌，这将使该国的“投资级”信用评级受到质疑，该信用评级允许美国养老金基金投资于该国的资产。

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