After the worst slump in advertising since the Great Depression, suddenly talk of recovery is in the air. In America, the big broadcasters are celebrating a rebound in commercials on network television. News Corporation's first-quarter profits more than doubled: a "resurgence of the advertising market," said its boss, Rupert Murdoch. He is not alone. Across the board in America and Britain, media-buying firms, TV broadcasters and radio and billboard companies have been making positive noises about the future. Even print advertising looks better. The December 2nd issues of several American magazines were heavier―with ad pages 70% up on a year ago in Newsweek, 27% in Time and 13% in Business Week. After an awful start to the year, most forecasters of ad spending are predicting a better end, a gradual improvement in 2003 and a return to normal (ie, pre-tech-bub-ble) levels in 2004. On December 3rd UBS Warburg said it now expects global ad spending this year to be 1.1% lower than in 2001. It predicts growth of 2.6% next year, followed by a livelier 5.3% increase in 2004. It expects America to lead a "soup-dish" recovery―long and shallow―until the presidential elections and Athens Olympics pump up the market in 2004.
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