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The swaps emperor's new clothes

机译：交换皇帝的新衣服

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The rate at which American companies are defaulting on their debts is soaring. Things have not yet come to such a pass in Europe, though rating agencies wonder if they will, because credit quality is declining. At times like these, bankers reach for credit derivatives, instruments that allow lenders to parcel the risk of default and pass it to somebody else. Record levels of so-called credit-default swaps, the most widespread form of credit derivative, have been bought and sold in recent months. Yet a huge and nagging doubt remains. Will credit-derivative instruments work at the crucial moment, the one they were designed to cope with—when a company (or country) defaults, or comes close to doing so? The future of a market worth $600 billion hangs on the answer.
机译：美国公司拖欠债务的比率正在飙升。尽管信用评级正在下降，但评级机构仍怀疑这种情况是否会在欧洲传开。在这样的时候，银行家会寻求信贷衍生工具，这是允许贷方分担违约风险并将其转移给其他人的工具。最近几个月买卖了创纪录水平的所谓信用违约掉期（信用违约掉期），这是最广泛的信用衍生工具形式。然而，仍然存在着巨大而棘手的疑问。当公司（或国家）违约或接近违约时，信用衍生工具会在关键时刻起作用吗？价值6000亿美元的市场的未来仍然悬而未决。

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