Suppose that the secondhand car you bought kept breaking down. Would you buy another from the same dealer? The same question might apply to economic forecasters. A year ago, most expected the American economy to grow by 3.5% in 2001. By early this year, they thought that a sharper slowdown, but still a soft landing, was likely; even in early September, almost all still ruled out a recession. Today, however, most believe that a recession was already under way before September 11th. When these same people confidently tell you that this recession will be short and mild-indeed, that it will be one of the mildest in 50 years-why would you believe them?
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