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Economics focus: Say 'R'

机译：经济学重点：说“ R”

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As Recently as February, 95% of American economists said it wouldn't happen, but it has. America is now in recession, according to-don't laugh—the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of American business cycles. This group of six economists reckons that the recession began in March, after ten years of expansion, the longest in American history.rnTo followers of The Economist's 11-word index (which counts the number of times that the word "recession" appears in American newspapers), this comes as no surprise. The index, unrigorous as it is, has accurately pinpointed the start of previous recessions, and it started to flash red in the first quarter of this year. But most American economists thought otherwise. Last January The Economist's poll of forecasters predicted, on average, that GDP growth would be 2.3% in 2001. Now the country will be lucky if it sees growth of 1%. Even in early September few economists were forecasting a recession. Now it appears that one had already been under way for almost six months.
机译：就在最近的2月，有95％的美国经济学家说这不会发生，但确实如此。别笑，美国现在正处于衰退中。美国经济周期的正式仲裁者，国家经济研究局（NBER）的经济周期约会委员会。由六位经济学家组成的小组认为，在经历了十年的扩张之后，经济衰退始于3月，这是美国历史上最长的一次。rn追随《经济学人》 11字索引的追随者（该数字统计了“衰退”一词在美国人中出现的次数报纸），这不足为奇。该指数虽然不够严格，但已经准确地指出了先前衰退的开始，并且在今年第一季度开始出现红色。但是大多数美国经济学家却不这么认为。去年1月，《经济学人》对预报员的调查平均预测2001年的GDP增长率为2.3％。现在，如果该国的增长率为1％，则将是幸运的。甚至在9月初，很少有经济学家预测经济会衰退。现在看来，已经进行了将近六个月。

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