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The transition to a highly qualified workforce

机译：向高素质劳动力的过渡

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Globalization is putting increasing pressure on jobs in the United Kingdom, particularly among less skilled activities. The European response through the Lisbon Strategy has been diffuse, while UK policy appears much more focused, concentrating on the need to raise education and skill levels. The present paper examines the transition towards a more highly qualified workforce in the United Kingdom, including an assessment of probable future developments given recent trends towards greater participation in higher education. It describes two complementary forecasting exercises, whereby a stock-flow model is used to produce UK-wide estimates and, then, a multi-logit equation is used to disaggregate these forecasts by region. The result is a set of estimates of the likely developments in the pattern of qualification attainment across the different parts of the United Kingdom, running through to 2014. It focuses upon the numbers of individuals broken down by level of qualification, gender, age and region. These forecasts suggest that, based on past trends (and consistent with meeting government targets), there will be substantial increases in the numbers and proportions of more qualified individuals and corresponding reductions among the less qualified. Further policy initiatives that may result from the Leitch Review are likely to further accentuate these changes.
机译：全球化给英国的工作，尤其是技能水平较低的工作带来了越来越大的压力。欧洲通过《里斯本战略》的反应是分散的，而英国的政策似乎更加集中，着重于提高教育水平和技能水平的需要。本文研究了英国向高素质劳动力的过渡，包括对考虑到最近更多地参与高等教育的趋势的未来可能发展的评估。它描述了两个互补的预测活动，其中，库存量模型用于产生英国范围内的估计，然后，使用多对数方程式按区域分解这些预测。结果是对直至2014年的英国不同地区资格认证模式的可能发展的一组估计。它着重于按资格级别，性别，年龄和地区划分的个人数量。这些预测表明，根据过去的趋势（并与实现政府目标相一致），合格人员的数量和比例将大量增加，而合格人员的数量和比例将相应减少。 《里奇评论》可能会进一步出台政策举措，可能会进一步加剧这些变化。

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