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Characterization and Impact of Extreme Forecast Errors on Power Systems

机译：极端预报误差的特征及其对电力系统的影响

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摘要

Extreme events in the electrical power system, caused by the load and wind forecasting errors, can impact the power system infrastructure via two main avenues. The first avenue is a sudden and significant power unbalance exceeding reasonable operating reserve capacity. The second is a sudden increase of power flows on the system critical paths causing transmission violations. The challenge in managing these system unbalances is more significant for a stand-alone balancing area operation. The consolidation of balancing authorities into a single balancing area can offset the operating reserve problem, but this strategy enhances incremental power flows on the transmission interfaces, potentially leading to more unpredictable transmission congestion. This article evaluates the expectation of occurrence of extreme events due to forecast error extremes using California Independent System Operator and Bonneville Power Administration data. Having this type of information, independent system operators and operating utilities could be better prepared to address the extreme events by exploring alternative reserve options, such as wide-area control coordination, new operating procedures, and remedial actions.
机译：由负荷和风的预测误差引起的电力系统中的极端事件可以通过两种主要途径影响电力系统的基础设施。第一条途径是突然的，严重的功率不平衡，超过了合理的运行备用容量。第二个是系统关键路径上的电流突然增加，从而导致传输冲突。对于独立的平衡区操作，管理这些系统不平衡的挑战更加重要。将平衡权限合并到单个平衡区域中可以抵消运行储备问题，但是此策略可增强传输接口上的增量功率流，从而可能导致更加不可预测的传输拥塞。本文使用“加利福尼亚独立系统运营商”和Bonneville Power Administration数据评估了由于预测误差极限而导致极端事件发生的预期。有了这类信息，独立系统操作员和操作公用程序就可以通过探索备用的备用方案（例如，广域控制协调，新的操作程序和补救措施）来更好地准备应对极端事件。

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  • 来源
    《Electric Power Components and Systems》 |2011年第16期|p.1685-1700|共16页
  • 作者

    G. T. HEYDT; V. VITTAL; S. MALHARA; Y. V. MAKAROV; N. ZHOU; P. V. ETINGOV;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Electrical, Computer, and Energy Engineering, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 875706, Tempe, AZ 85281-5706;

    Department of Electrical, Computer, and Energy Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA;

    Vestas Technologies - R&D Americas, Houston, Texas, USA;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (operated by Battelle), Richland, Washington, USA;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (operated by Battelle), Richland, Washington, USA;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (operated by Battelle), Richland, Washington, USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    wind energy; renewable generation; wind forecast; generation reserve; forecast error;

    机译：风能;可再生能源发电;天气预报发电储备;预测误差;

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