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Three probabilistic metrics for adequacy assessment of the Pacific Northwest power system

机译：评估西北太平洋电力系统的三个概率指标

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All regional power system entities within the bulk assessment areas in North America calculate and report probabilistic adequacy metrics that measure projected shortfall duration and magnitude to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). While no maximum thresholds have been defined for either metric to be used as an adequacy standard, it is possible that such thresholds could be defined sometime in the future as planners gain a better understanding of the risks associated with each metric and how they interact. Therefore, it is prudent to know whether setting a threshold for one metric automatically leads to an equivalent and predictable threshold for the other. To answer this question, this paper examines mathematical relationships among these two metrics and a third metric (that measures the projected shortfall frequency) for the Pacific Northwest power supply. Results from a Monte Carlo simulation model show that although in special cases the threshold for one metric can be used to calculate unique thresholds for the other two, in general this is not the case. Hence, if these metrics are to be used to define an adequacy standard for the Northwest, threshold values for all three metrics should be defined independently.
机译：北美大容量评估区内的所有区域电力系统实体都会计算并报告概率充足性指标，以衡量预计的短缺持续时间和严重程度，并将其报告给北美电力可靠性公司（NERC）。尽管没有为这两个度量标准定义最大阈值，但是随着计划者更好地理解与每个度量标准相关的风险以及它们如何相互作用，有可能在将来某个时候定义这样的阈值。因此，明智的做法是知道为一个指标设置阈值是否会自动导致另一指标的等效和可预测的阈值。为了回答这个问题，本文研究了太平洋西北地区电源的这两个指标和第三个指标（用于度量预计的短缺频率）之间的数学关系。蒙特卡洛模拟模型的结果表明，尽管在特殊情况下可以使用一个度量标准的阈值来计算其他两个度量标准的唯一阈值，但通常情况并非如此。因此，如果将这些指标用于定义西北地区的适当性标准，则应独立定义所有三个指标的阈值。

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