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Bayesian spatial reliability model for power transmission network lines

机译:电力传输网络线贝叶斯空间可靠性模型

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The paper is devoted for the problem of assessment of the dependence of power transmission lines outages on the geographical position in the network. Authors present the model based on Poisson-gamma random field for the purpose of capturing the information about the strength of correlation between the power transmission network outages and geographical positions. The model presentation is followed by the analysis of the model and application to the North American power grid. The main finding is that outages of the power grid are geographically correlated and this effect should be incorporated into the overall reliability assessment of the grid to obtain more accurate estimates. It is proved in this paper, that taking into account dependency of line outages on the geographical location, enables to obtain more accurate results as compared to classical Poisson and to hierarchical Poisson-Bayesian models.
机译:本文致力于评估电力传输线路在网络地理位置的依赖性的评估问题。作者介绍了基于Poisson-Gamma随机场的模型,以捕获电力传输网络中断与地理位置之间的相关强度的信息。模型演示文稿后面是分析模型和应用于北美电网。主要发现是电网的中断在地理上相关,并且这种效果应纳入网格的总体可靠性评估,以获得更准确的估计。本文证明,考虑到线路中断对地理位置的依赖性,使得能够获得与古典泊松和分层泊松模型相比的更准确的结果。

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