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Bivariate statistics of lightning density and guaranteed quality of service in distribution network using copulas

机译：使用COPULAS的分配网络中闪电密度的二抗体统计数据

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To properly set the guaranteed quality of service for different distribution system operators (DSOs), the regulator has to determine the influence of extreme events on the annual reliability indices and predict the reliability of these events. In this paper, the spatial correlation of lightning storms and annual reliability indices for different DSOs are determined. The correlation is calculated using the global annual reliability and lightning data aggregated from individual DSOs. Using Gaussian and t copula, the joint distribution of individual reliability indices (SAIFI and SAIDI) and lightning density for different DSOs and geographical regions has been determined. After the distribution fitting, it is possible to calculate the risk of not attaining the guaranteed quality of service for every individual DSO on condition that the lightning activity does not surpass the required level. The methodology is tested by using 7 year?s period real operational data from 27 Serbian distribution utilities.
机译：为了正确设置不同分配系统运营商（DSOS）的保证服务质量，该监管机构必须确定极端事件对年度可靠性指数的影响，并预测这些事件的可靠性。在本文中，确定了不同DSO的雷暴和年度可靠性指标的空间相关。使用全局年可靠性和从各个DSO聚合的闪电数据来计算相关性。使用高斯和T Copula，确定了不同DSO和地理区域的各个可靠性指数（佐肌和佐肌和释放）和雷电密度的联合分布。分配拟合后，可以计算雷电活动不超过所需水平的条件下无法获得保证的服务质量的风险。通过使用来自27个塞尔维亚分销公用事业的7年的时间运行数据来测试方法。

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