• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Electric power systems research >Early warning signals for critical transitions in power systems
【24h】

Early warning signals for critical transitions in power systems

机译：电力系统关键过渡的预警信号

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Several episodes of sudden large scale disruptions in electrical service deeply impacted both the social stability and economic development in affected countries. The prevention of such catastrophic incidents poses huge challenges for reliability study and operational practices in power systems. Studies in other scientific fields show that, upon reaching a tipping point, complex dynamical systems can experience sudden transitions into a contrasting state. These transitions may be predicted through behavioral changes in some statistical measures of the system state. Inspired by these studies, this paper proposes an analysis of the critical transition in power systems from a long-term perspective. The evolution of the operational "stress" and its cyclical variation due to a slowly increasing demand and system expansions is simulated on a test system. The disturbances and the resulting failures under different stress levels are studied. Our analysis identifies the statistical trends known as flickering and critical slowing down in the operational and the recorded outage data along the simulation. These statistical changes can be used as early warning signals of the upcoming operational state which is more prone to a catastrophic blackout. The development of such early warning signals is the key to reaching higher levels of reliability in the energy supply infrastructure that society requires today. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
机译：几次突然的电力服务突然中断，都严重影响了受影响国家的社会稳定和经济发展。预防此类灾难性事件对电力系统的可靠性研究和操作实践提出了巨大的挑战。其他科学领域的研究表明，一旦达到临界点，复杂的动力系统就会经历突然转变为对比状态的过程。这些转变可以通过系统状态的某些统计量度中的行为变化来预测。受这些研究的启发，本文从长期角度提出了对电力系统关键过渡的分析。在测试系统上模拟了由于需求的缓慢增长和系统扩展而导致的操作“压力”的演变及其周期性变化。研究了在不同应力水平下的扰动及其所导致的破坏。我们的分析确定了模拟中的运行和记录中断数据中被称为闪烁和严重减慢的统计趋势。这些统计变化可以用作即将发生的运行状态的预警信号，这种状态更容易发生灾难性的停电。这种预警信号的发展是当今社会所需的能源供应基础设施中更高的可靠性水平的关键。 （C）2015作者。由Elsevier B.V.发布。这是CC BY-NC-ND许可（http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/）下的开放获取文章。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号