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Impact of equipment failures and wind correlation on generation expansion planning

机译：设备故障和风力相关对发电扩展计划的影响

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摘要

Generation expansion planning has become a complex problem within a deregulated electricity market environment due to all the uncertainties affecting the profitability of a given investment Current expansion models usually overlook some of these uncertainties in order to reduce the computational burden. In this paper, we raise a flag on the importance of both equipment failures (units and lines) and wind power correlation on generation expansion decisions. For this purpose, we use a biievel stochastic optimization problem, which models the sequential and noncooperative game between the generating company (GENCO) and the system operator. The upper-level problem maximizes the GENCO's expected profit, while the lower-level problem simulates an hourly market-clearing procedure, through which LMPs are determined. The uncertainty pertaining to failures and wind power correlation is characterized by a scenario set, and its impact on generation expansion decisions is quantified and discussed for a 24-bus power system.
机译：由于所有不确定性都会影响给定投资的获利能力，因此在不规范的电力市场环境下，发电扩展计划已成为一个复杂的问题。当前的扩展模型通常会忽略其中的一些不确定性，以减轻计算负担。在本文中，我们对设备故障（单位和线路）以及风力发电相关性在发电扩展决策中的重要性提出了警告。为此，我们使用biievel随机优化问题，该问题对发电公司（GENCO）与系统运营商之间的顺序和非合作博弈进行建模。上层问题最大化了GENCO的预期利润，下层问题则模拟了每小时的市场清算程序，通过该程序可以确定LMP。与故障和风电相关性相关的不确定性以情景集为特征，并针对24总线电力系统量化并讨论了其对发电扩展决策的影响。

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