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A long term generation expansion planning model using system dynamics - Case study using data from the Portuguese/Spanish generation system

机译：使用系统动力学的长期发电量扩展计划模型-使用来自葡萄牙/西班牙发电系统的数据进行案例研究

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This paper describes a long term generation expansion model that uses system dynamics to capture the interrelations between different variables and parameters. Using this model, it is possible to estimate the long term evolution of the demand and of the electricity price that are then used by generation agents to prepare individual expansion plans. These plans are submitted to a coordination analysis to check some global indicators, as the reserve margin and the LOLE. The developed approach is illustrated using a realistic generation system based on the Portuguese/Spanish system with an installed capacity of nearly 120 GW and an yearly demand of 312 TWh in 2010. Large investments were directed in the last 20 years to the Iberian generation system both regarding traditional technologies and dispersed generation (namely wind parks and solar systems). Today, the excess of installed capacity together with the demand reduction poses a number of questions that should be addressed carefully namely to investigate the impact of several options. The planning exercise aims at identifying the most adequate expansion plans in view of the increased renewable generation (namely wind parks). For illustration purposes, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of increasing the installed capacity in wind parks, of internalizing CO2 emission costs and of incorporating a capacity payment. These analyses are relevant in order to get more insight on the possible long term evolution of the system and to allow generation companies to take more sounded decisions.
机译：本文描述了一个长期生成扩展模型，该模型使用系统动力学来捕获不同变量和参数之间的相互关系。使用此模型，可以估计需求和电价的长期演变，然后发电代理商将其用于制定单独的扩展计划。将这些计划提交给协调分析，以检查一些全球性指标，如准备金和LOLE。使用基于葡萄牙/西班牙系统的现实发电系统举例说明了开发的方法，该系统的装机容量接近120 GW，2010年的年需求量为312 TWh。在过去20年中，对伊比利亚发电系统进行了大量投资有关传统技术和分散发电（即风电场和太阳能系统）的信息。如今，过剩的装机容量和需求减少带来了许多问题，应认真研究这些问题，即研究几种方案的影响。规划工作旨在根据可再生能源发电量的增加（即风电场），确定最适当的扩展计划。出于说明目的，我们还进行了敏感性分析，以评估增加风电场装机容量，内部化CO2排放成本以及纳入容量支付的影响。这些分析是相关的，以便对系统可能的长期发展有更多的了解，并允许发电公司做出更合理的决定。

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