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Evaluating Operational Risk In A Power System With A Large Amount Of Wind Power

机译：评估风力发电量较大的电力系统中的操作风险

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摘要

Reserve definition is a compromise between economic issues (additional capacity costs) and reliability (risk of loss of load due to outages of the generators), generally approached by deterministic criteria (e.g. the percentage rule defined by UCTE in Europe) and probabilistic methods like PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jer-sey, Maryland) and its enhancements, based on the concept of risk. With wind power generation increasing in power systems worldwide, these operational issues gain a renewed interest due to the volatile nature of this kind of energy. The aim of this paper is therefore to address this issue from a risk evaluation point of view, showing that it is possible to extend classical probabilistic methods to this new situation, by introducing a detailed Markov model of wind parks that accounts both for machine failures and different wind power levels.rnThis evaluation, where wind generation fluctuation and uncertainty is included, can be helpful for transmission system operators (TSO), when defining the reserve requirements for the next hours. In fact, the results obtained for the risk can be used by TSO to check if the reserve levels that results from traditional deterministic rules are acceptable or need to be increased.
机译：储备定义是经济问题（额外的容量成本）和可靠性（由于发电机故障造成的负荷损失风险）之间的折衷，通常通过确定性标准（例如，欧洲UCTE定义的百分比规则）和概率方法（如PJM）来解决（Pennsylvania-New Jer-sey，马里兰）及其增强功能，基于风险概念。随着全球电力系统中风力发电的增加，由于这种能源的易变​​性，这些操作问题引起了人们的新兴趣。因此，本文的目的是从风险评估的角度解决这个问题，表明可以通过引入详细的马尔可夫风电场模型来解决这种故障，从而将经典的概率方法扩展到这种新情况。在评估接下来几个小时的储备要求时，该评估（包括风力发电波动和不确定性）可以对输电系统运营商（TSO）有所帮助。实际上，TSO可以使用针对风险获得的结果来检查由传统确定性规则得出的准备金水平是否可以接受或需要增加。

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