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Reliability of a small power system using solar power and hydro

机译：使用太阳能和水力发电的小型电力系统的可靠性

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This paper studies the availability of the electricity supply when the sources consist of a combination of solar energy and a small hydro installation. Instead of flow-of-river, a small reservoir is used. By not using the hydro energy during sunny periods, the natural flow-of-river fills up the reservoir for later use. A model for global solar radiation is proposed with an astronomical part (deterministic) and a meteorological part (stochastic). The meteorological part is based on a Markov model of the cloud coverage. The solar model does not require solar radiation measurements, just cloud observations. A case study has been performed for Timbuktu (16.75°N, 0.07°W) in which generation availability is simulated for four different cases: solar power only; solar power with storage; solar and hydro power and solar and hydro power with storage. To be able to use exclusively renewable energy sources, a combination of sources is needed to secure the reliability of the supply. Using solar cells in combination with a small reservoir is favorable. Even with a weak flow the affect of the flow on the day time reliability is minor, but great benefits can be found for reliability during low load hours (night time).
机译：本文研究当来源包括太阳能和小型水力发电设施时的电力供应可用性。代替河水，使用了一个小型水库。通过在晴天不使用水能，自然的河道将水库填满，以备后用。提出了具有天文部分（确定性）和气象部分（随机）的全球太阳辐射模型。气象部分基于云覆盖的马尔可夫模型。太阳模型不需要太阳辐射测量，只需云观测即可。已经针对廷巴克图（16.75°N，0.07°W）进行了案例研究，其中针对四种不同情况模拟了发电量：带储能的太阳能；太阳能和水力发电以及带有存储的太阳能和水力发电。为了能够仅使用可再生能源，需要使用多种能源来确保供应的可靠性。结合使用太阳能电池和小型水库是有利的。即使流量很弱，流量对白天时间可靠性的影响也很小，但是在低负载小时（夜间）的可靠性方面可以找到很大的好处。

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