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Novel approach considering load-relative factors in short-term load forecasting

机译：短期负荷预测中考虑负荷相关因素的新方法

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With structural changes to electricity industry in recent years, there is an increasing emphasis on short-term load forecasting (STLF). STLF is the essential part of power system planning and operation. In deregulated environment, STLF greatly affects system marginal price. Therefore many kinds of models for STLF have been proposed in recent 30 years. However, an individual forecasting model cannot work well in every possible condition. To overcome this problem, an integrated model, based on the idea of simulative forecasting, which can synthesize individual forecasting model results, is proposed in this paper. In practice, STLF is always affected by a variety of nonlinear factors. Since it is difficult to identify the nonlinearity by conventional methods, a novel approach is proposed which is able to deal with most factors affecting power load. The major idea in the approach is to define a mapping function for each factor. Finally, an algorithm for optimizing mapping functions is presented. Case studies show that it is a successful solution to improve the accuracy of STLF.
机译：近年来，随着电力行业的结构变化，人们越来越重视短期负荷预测（STLF）。 STLF是电力系统规划和运营的重要组成部分。在放松管制的环境中，STLF极大地影响了系统的边际价格。因此，最近30年提出了许多STLF模型。但是，一个单独的预测模型不能在所有可能的情况下都很好地工作。为了克服这个问题，本文提出了一种基于模拟预测思想的综合模型，可以综合各个预测模型的结果。实际上，STLF始终受各种非线性因素的影响。由于传统方法难以识别非线性，因此提出了一种新颖的方法，该方法能够处理大多数影响功率负载的因素。该方法的主要思想是为每个因子定义一个映射函数。最后，提出了一种优化映射功能的算法。案例研究表明，这是提高STLF准确性的成功解决方案。

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