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A fuzzy-based approach for generation system reliability evaluation

机译：基于模糊的发电系统可靠性评估方法

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摘要

A new method for calculating generation system reliability using fuzzy mathematics is presented here. In reliability evaluation of power systems, a membership function can be provided to represent the uncertainties and inaccuracies in the failure rates and repair rates of generating units. The basic unit addition recursive algorithm is modified to represent these uncertainties along with uncertainties in system load as fuzzy data. Loads are represented as clusters to overcome the difficulty of large computational time requirements. A computer program has been developed in C language to include all aforementioned factors. The program was tested with the IEEE Reliability Test System on an IBM RS/6000 workstation. Several cases were analyzed and results are presented. The algorithm developed computes reliability indices such as loss of load probability (LOLP) and the expected unsaved energy (EWE) which are viewed as possibility distributions.
机译：提出了一种利用模糊数学计算发电系统可靠性的新方法。在电力系统的可靠性评估中，可以提供隶属函数来表示发电机组的故障率和维修率的不确定性和不准确性。修改了基本单元加法递归算法，以将这些不确定性以及系统负载中的不确定性表示为模糊数据。将负载表示为群集，以克服大量计算时间要求的困难。已经开发出一种用C语言编写的计算机程序，其中包括所有上述因素。该程序已在IBM RS / 6000工作站上通过IEEE可靠性测试系统进行了测试。分析了几个案例并给出了结果。开发的算法计算可靠性指标，例如负载概率损失（LOLP）和预期未节省能量（EWE），这些指标被视为可能性分布。

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