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The cyclical behavior of household and corporate credit in emerging economies

机译：家庭和企业信贷在新兴经济体中的周期性行为

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摘要

Standard consumption-investment theory predicts counter-cyclical (pro-cyclical) behavior of household (corporate) credit whereby households' consumption smoothing and firms' investment motives are aligned. Counter to the theoretical symbiosis consistent with U.S. data, we demonstrate not only in South Korea, but also in 19 emerging economies that the pro-cyclical behavior of household credit dominates that of corporate credit. Our analysis further reveals that dominant, pro-cyclical household credit accompanied by (collateral) assets and fueled by external debt generates counter-cyclical behavior in interest rates, amplifies credit market fluctuation, and hinders the growth of smalland medium-size businesses in the South Korean economy.
机译：标准消费投资理论预测家庭（企业）信用的反周期性（私人周期性）行为，户口的消费平滑和公司的投资动机进行了一致。与美国数据一致的理论共生，我们不仅在韩国展示，也展示了19个新兴经济体，即家庭信贷的亲周期性行为占公司信贷的主导地位。我们的分析进一步揭示了由（抵押品）资产的主导，亲周期性的家庭信贷，并通过外债推动的利率产生反周期性行为，放大信贷市场波动，阻碍南方的小型中型企业的增长韩国经济。

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