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Divisia monetary aggregates for a heterogeneous euro area

机译：Divisia货币汇总为异质欧元区

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摘要

Since the run-up to the great recession, there has been a significant degree of heterogeneity across euro area countries both in terms of interest rates and in the composition of monetary assets. In order to account for the heterogeneity of monetary assets within and across member countries, we propose a Divisia monetary aggregate for the euro area. In line with earlier evidence obtained for the United States, our results from a panel probit analysis show that the divergence between the Divisia and the simple sum aggregate has a significant predictive content for recessions in euro area countries.
机译：自艰苦衰退以来，欧元区各国在利率和货币资产组成方面存在显着程度的异质性。为了考虑在成员国内部和跨国公司内部资产的异质性，我们提出了欧元区的Divisia货币汇总。根据对美国获得的早期证据，我们来自小组概率分析的结果表明，Divisia与简单总和汇总之间的分歧具有显着的预测内容，用于欧元区国家的衰退。

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