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Impact of emerging technologies on the electricity load profile of residential areas

机译：新兴技术对居民区电力负荷的影响

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Technological progress and the ambition to de-carbonise the energy sector are changing the way electricity is generated and used. In the residential sector, more efficient electric devices, electrification of mobility and heating systems, as well as on-site PV and battery systems are the main technologies driving this change. These changes will impact the characteristics of the electric demand. A comprehensive understanding of these changes is essential to efficiently design the energy system of tomorrow.The target of this research is to explore the possible changes of the electric load profiles with the current technological development, both at an individual household level and at an aggregate level. An inner-city area of 1550 houses is simulated with a time resolution of 1 minute using a stochastic bottom-up approach. Three scenarios considering refurbishment of buildings, efficiency increase in devices and emerging technologies are simulated. Differences in the load profiles are then analysed.Results show that future load profiles will change significantly. A strong seasonality will appear due to the increased penetration of PV, mu-CHP and heat pumps. Intra-day fluctuations will also increase, mainly due to the introduction of electric vehicles and PV. Annual peak load will rise significantly mainly due to the electric back-up heaters of air-source heat pumps. Increased electrification increases annual electricity demand, but results show that this will be partly compensated by better insulated buildings, more energy efficient household devices, and on-site production from PV-Battery systems and mu-CHP. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：技术进步和能源部门脱碳的雄心正在改变电力的产生和使用方式。在住宅领域，更高效的电气设备，移动性和供暖系统的电气化以及现场光伏和电池系统是推动这一变化的主要技术。这些变化将影响电力需求的特征。全面了解这些变化对于有效地设计明天的能源系统至关重要。本研究的目的是探索在当前技术发展中，无论是在单个家庭层面还是在总体层面上，电力负荷曲线可能发生的变化。 。使用随机自下而上的方法，以1分钟的时间分辨率模拟了1550座房屋的市中心区域。模拟了三种考虑建筑物翻新，设备效率提高和新兴技术的场景。然后分析负载曲线的差异。结果表明，未来的负载曲线将发生显着变化。由于PV，mu-CHP和热泵的渗透率增加，因此将出现强烈的季节性变化。日间波动也将增加，这主要是由于引入了电动汽车和光伏发电。每年的峰值负荷将显着增加，这主要是由于空气源热泵的备用电子加热器。电气化程度的提高使年度电力需求增加，但结果表明，更好的绝缘建筑，更节能的家用设备以及光伏电池系统和mu-CHP的现场生产将部分弥补这一需求。 （C）2019 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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