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Statistical model of the heating prediction gap in Dutch dwellings: Relative importance of building, household and behavioural characteristics

机译：荷兰住宅中供暖预测差距的统计模型：建筑物，家庭和行为特征的相对重要性

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摘要

The European Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) set the regulatory framework for a cost-effective improvement of the existing dwellings in 2002. The transformation of the stock towards higher efficiency is expected to be stimulated by labelling of the dwellings. The certificate itself is required to contain a list of potential cost-effective measures for the dwellings' thermal retrofit. However, the theoretical heating consumption provided in the certificate is not a good baseline for the calculation of cost effectiveness, as it is based on normalised dwelling conditions. Normalised conditions include a constant occupancy, constant indoor temperature and normalisations of other parameters, which in reality differ in different types of dwellings. The discrepancies between the normalised theoretical and actual heating consumption are also referred to as the performance gap. In this paper, we examined these discrepancies using the example of The Netherlands. Using descriptive statistics and multiple regression, we investigated several parameters thought to have a different effect on actual and theoretical heating energy use dwelling, household, occupant behaviour, as well as comfort - in order to propose improvements to the current theoretical consumption calculation. Aside from analysing the total sample, the data is regarded separately for overpredicted and underpredicted consumption records. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：欧洲建筑性能指令（EPBD）于2002年设定了成本有效地改善现有住宅的监管框架。住宅的标签有望促进存量向更高效率的转化。证书本身必须包含一系列针对住宅进行热改造的潜在成本有效措施。但是，证书中提供的理论供暖消耗量不是基于成本计算的良好基准，因为它基于标准化的居住条件。归一化的条件包括恒定的占用率，恒定的室内温度以及其他参数的归一化，实际上这在不同类型的住宅中有所不同。归一化的理论和实际热量消耗之间的差异也称为性能差距。在本文中，我们以荷兰为例研究了这些差异。使用描述性统计和多元回归，我们研究了几个参数，这些参数被认为会对实际和理论上的热能使用住宅，家庭，居住者的行为以及舒适度产生不同的影响，以便提出对当前理论能耗计算的改进建议。除了分析总样本外，对于高估和低估的消费记录也分别考虑数据。 （C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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