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Using multiple regression analysis to develop energy consumption indicators for commercial buildings in the US

机译：使用多元回归分析来开发美国商业建筑的能耗指标

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摘要

Multiple regression analysis plays an important role in evaluating the energy consumption of buildings. These models are commonly used to assess the energy performance of commercial buildings and to predict any potential for energy consumption reduction. In this study, the building simulation software DOE-2 was used to predict energy consumption. A total of 17 key building design variables were identified related to building envelope, building orientation, and occupant schedule. Since, building energy consumption depends on many operational and design parameters; large numbers of simulations are needed to generate data for the multiple regression models. To tackle this problem, a randomized approach was adopted to reduce the required number of simulations examining the whole design space. Monte Carlo simulation technique was used to generate thirty thousand combinations of design parameters, covering the full range for each climate region. In order to implement the Monte Carlo simulation, an in-house computer program was developed to interface with DOE-2 energy simulation software. Stepwise regression was used to reduce the number of parameters and only include the most effective parameters. R statistical analysis program was also used to develop the set of linear regression equations. Parametric study and sensitivity analysis between levels of most effective parameters were performed. The developing models can be used to estimate the energy consumption of office buildings in early stages of design. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：多元回归分析在评估建筑物能耗方面起着重要作用。这些模型通常用于评估商业建筑的能源性能，并预测任何降低能耗的潜力。在这项研究中，使用建筑物模拟软件DOE-2来预测能耗。共确定了与建筑物围护结构，建筑物方向和居住时间表有关的17个关键建筑物设计变量。因为，建筑能耗取决于许多运行和设计参数；需要大量模拟才能为多个回归模型生成数据。为了解决这个问题，采用了一种随机方法来减少检查整个设计空间所需的仿真次数。蒙特卡罗模拟技术用于生成三万个设计参数组合，涵盖每个气候区域的整个范围。为了实施蒙特卡洛模拟，开发了一个内部计算机程序来与DOE-2能源模拟软件对接。使用逐步回归来减少参数的数量，并且仅包括最有效的参数。还使用R统计分析程序来开发线性回归方程组。在最有效的参数之间进行了参数研究和敏感性分析。开发模型可用于估计设计初期的办公楼能耗。 （C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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